Trade war

For many years, the emerging markets of Asia have been the main engine of the growth of the World’s economy.

However, the latest economic research note released by Credito y Caucion warns that the escalation of the US-China trade war, the monetary adjustment of the Federal Reserve and the growing aversion to risk in emerging markets "will leave their mark "in the growth prospects of the region.

The countries of Southeast Asia will feel the impact because China and the United States are the main destinations of their foreign trade. "We anticipate that export growth will slow in the next two years and for some countries it will be more difficult to finance their external deficits, yet we are not very concerned." The impact of weak global trade on the growth of Southeast GDP Asia will be moderate, because domestic demand is still strong, there is room for compensatory macroeconomic policies and trade war should also have some positive consequences, "says the report.

Credito y Caucion considers it "unlikely" that the largest countries in Southeast Asia will face a financial crisis due to the increase in interest rates in the United States, thanks to the sound macroeconomic policies in the region over the last two decades. accumulated reserves and the flexibility of the exchange rate.

The report highlights that "the European Union and Japan share the concerns of the United States about the close ties between the State and companies in China, the mandatory transfer of technology by foreign companies that invest in China and the lack of equality of land of play "which increases the likelihood that they will" combine their efforts to change or even combat the way in which China operates in the global economy ".